时间标签：数据日期 2026-10-31 · 生成时间 2026-11-01 05:30（Asia/Shanghai）｜ 检索窗口 PubMed edat 2026/10/28–2026/10/31 ｜ 情报发生日期 2026-10-31
研究问题
Alcohol consumption poses a substantial risk to health, ranking seventh globally and fifth for Aotearoa New Zealand (A‐NZ) as a cause of morbidity and mortality in 2016 [].；In A‐NZ, 74.9% of those aged 15+ years report drinking alcohol in the past year and 23.5% of past year drinkers report consuming 6 or more alcoholic drinks on one occasion at least monthly [].
方法
The model uses a proportional multi‐state life‐table design that divides the 2018 A‐NZ population into 5‐year age, sex and ethnicity (Māori/non‐Māori) cohorts using 2018 population estimates.；We used projected population growth to add new cohorts of 0–4 year olds to the model every 5 years of the simulation.；We simulated each cohort moving through disease states concurrently, over time, for 100 years (aligned with earlier A‐NZ alcohol modelling [, ]) and present 60 year results as the main analysis for comparability with recent Australian analysis [].；This study was approved by the University of Otago Human Ethics Committee (#H24/0173) and is reported according to the CHEERS Statement [].
核心结论
However, increased longevity leads to substantial increases in background health system costs (numbers underlying these figures are provided in Supporting Information Results Table ).；Cardiovascular diseases and diabetes collectively contributed $2.0bn and $0.5bn to health system costs for the elimination and intervention scenarios, respectively.；Increased costs for cardiovascular disease and diabetes reflect both the increased incidence of some conditions due to the ‘protective’ effect of low levels of alcohol consumption and the increase in the proportion of the population who live to experience these conditions due to increased longevity. ‖ 结论：Overall, our results provide additional rationale for additional restrictions on alcohol's price, availability and marketing in line with international best practice [].
局限
We intend to expand the model in future work to capture more conditions (including alcohol use disorders) and explore widening the perspective to capture other relevant costs that were beyond the scope of this analysis (e.g., harms to non‐drinkers).；There were also several limitations to this analysis.；Updating model inputs to reflect post‐pandemic patterns of alcohol consumption and epidemiology is a priority for future work.
对本项目的价值
★☆☆☆☆ 干预证据决定参照标准效应量——任何抗衰干预的收益至少应对标该基线。最大样本量约 1,233,000。
全文来源
PMC JATS 全文（正文 25,476 字符，已过标题/DOI 逐字归属校验）
原文题录
- 英文标题：The Estimated Health System Cost Impacts of Interventions to Reduce Alcohol Harm in New Zealand: A Modelling Study.
- 期刊与标识：Drug Alcohol Rev · PMID 42946132 · DOI 10.1111/dar.70282
A 级证据分级：A 级（同行评议人体研究）
本文属人体研究证据，但需注意：观察性或小样本干预的结论不等于已证实临床获益；效应量与长期安全性仍需更大规模、更长随访的试验验证。
关于本文的文献来源：本站依据 IMA 知识库「五刊监控·深度文献卡片」撰写，依据已获取的期刊全文（方法、样本量与结论已回到原文核对）；未能获取全文的同批条目另行标注「摘要级」，全程未做任何数值推算补全。