时间标签：数据日期 2026-10-31 · 生成时间 2026-11-01 05:30（Asia/Shanghai）｜ 检索窗口 PubMed edat 2026/10/28–2026/10/31 ｜ 情报发生日期 2026-10-31
研究问题
Cancer remains one of the foremost global health challenges, ranking as the second leading cause of death worldwide after cardiovascular disease, posing a serious threat to public health and social development [].；However, the worldwide demographic structure is undergoing progressive aging, driven primarily by declining birth rates and increasing lifespan.；This study aimed to analyze the latest cancer burden, epidemiological characteristics, and attributable risk factors among older adults worldwide and to project changes in the disease burden through 2050, based on the two largest publicly available global cancer databases.
方法
The extracted data included incidence and mortality estimates for 33 malignant tumors among individuals aged 65 + worldwide, excluding NMSC.；We used Das Gupta decomposition analysis to quantify the drivers of changes in the overall cancer burden among individuals aged 65 years and older from 2000 to 2023, including population growth among those aged 65 years and older, changes in the internal age structure of this population (aging within the older population), and epidemiological changes [, ].；A two-tailed P value < 0.05 was adopted as the criterion for statistical significance.；The Joinpoint Regression Program (version 5.4.0), along with R software (version 4.6.0) and associated packages, was employed for all statistical analyses and graphical presentations.
核心结论
In 2024, sex-specific differences in the global cancer burden among the elderly were apparent, with males having higher incidence and mortality rates than females across all age brackets (Fig.；Although the absolute number of cancer cases among older adults worldwide was concentrated in the younger older-adult population, age-specific rates were higher in successively older age groups, with the highest rate in the ≥ 85-year group (Fig.；The ASIR for all cancers among older adults increased with increasing HDI, from 567.5 per 100,000 in the low-HDI group to 1,603.8 per 100,000 in the very-high-HDI group. ‖ 结论：These findings refine prevention and control priorities: while strengthening tobacco control, greater attention should be given to metabolic risk management, early detection of pancreatic cancer, sex- and age-stratified care, equity in diagnosis and treatment in low- and middle-HDI regions, and comprehensive geriatric assessment.
局限
These associations may be influenced by diagnostic intensity, registry completeness, cancer type composition, cause-of-death coding, and treatment accessibility; therefore, they should be interpreted with caution [].；In addition, these projections cannot capture the effects of future advances in screening technologies, new therapies, policy changes, or sudden public health events and should therefore be interpreted with caution.；The disease burden shows marked heterogeneity by sex, age, region, and level of development.
对本项目的价值
★☆☆☆☆ 相关范围内，作为背景与横向对照收录。最大样本量约 9,966,392。
全文来源
PMC JATS 全文（正文 34,611 字符，已过标题/DOI 逐字归属校验）
原文题录
- 英文标题：Global cancer statistics among older adults in 2024 with projections to 2050: a multi-source population-based analysis.
- 期刊与标识：J Hematol Oncol · PMID 42958334 · DOI 10.1186/s13045-026-01862-y
A 级证据分级：A 级（同行评议人体研究）
本文属人体研究证据，但需注意：观察性或小样本干预的结论不等于已证实临床获益；效应量与长期安全性仍需更大规模、更长随访的试验验证。
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